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On the surface, today's unemployment data looks boring. The rate held steady at 3.8% for the September-November period. "Steady" sounds good, right?
Look Deeper: The Shrinking Pie
The headline number hides a worrying trend: Total Employment dropped by 2,800 people. The only reason the unemployment rate didn't rise is because the Labour Force also shrank by 8,000 people.
What This Means for HR:
- The "Exodus" Isn't Over: A shrinking labour force suggests that people aren't just losing jobs; they are leaving the market entirely (retiring, emigrating, or giving up).
- The "Quality" Crunch: The people leaving are often mid-career professionals. The people remaining are either "too junior" (requiring training) or "too expensive" (senior stayers). The "middle layer" of management is hollowing out.
- Hiring Freeze vs. Attrition: The drop in employment numbers aligns with the "Quiet Cutting" trend we've seen in Q4—companies aren't firing en masse, but they aren't backfilling roles when people leave.
Strategic Pivot for 2026:
If the talent pool is shrinking, you cannot rely on "posting and praying."
- Target the "Boomerang" Hires: Reach out to employees who left 12-18 months ago. They may have found the grass wasn't greener elsewhere and can rejoin with zero training cost.
- Invest in "Alumni Networks": Treat your ex-employees as a community. They are your best source of referrals for the shrinking pool of qualified candidates.
Action Item:
Review your Q1 headcount plan. If you are budgeting for "growth," where will those people come from? If the macro pool is shrinking, you need to poach, not just recruit.
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Reference: Census and Statistics Department
https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/press_release_detail.html?id=5658